You’re talking about from buildup to crash, though. As if everyone just looking at literally any large investment and saying “it’s a bubble!” is dong anything other than being a broken clock right twice a day.
I follow conspiracy theories extensively, and people have always predicted a huge, massive economic collapse next year - every year. On Art Bell, it was a constant, reiterated prediction every year from 1994 until 2013. It’s only the ones that happened to say it in 2006 or 2007 that rode the credit of “actually predicting the 2008 crisis!” Even the ones saying it before the Dot Com bubble didn’t get it right because their doomerism made all predictions “end of the world” level.
I haven’t heard this much bubble talk ever. It’s not the same prediction made by the same people again this time. I don’t even know anybody irl who likes vibecoding (myself included) who thinks this is sustainable.
Even the ones saying it before the Dot Com bubble didn’t get it right because their doomerism made all predictions “end of the world” level.
I don’t know what you’re trying to say. People had bad takes about that bubble so all bubble scepticism is discredited? But it popped, which means all these investors had bad takes as well. So…
Nobody worth listening to thinks this bubble is going to be worse than the dotcom bubble. It’s simply not that big to begin with. I guess there’s some wishful thinking too, but what’s the alternative to this investors-expected AI growth? Everything except the AI market crashes?
Exactly. And you know who’s bad at predicting things? Large groups of people.
It’s a fractional bubble at best. Unlike the Dot Com bubble, which invested in things like URLs that no one wanted and WorldCom’s fiber layout, the buildouts and investments being done on spec aren’t of the kind that are single-use. Data centers are always in demand, anyway. Storage and cloud compute are always in demand. Electricity is in demand. If AI flops tomorrow, other than 3 over-valued companies employing…a few hundred people, and idiot investors in those companies, the entire economy isn’t yet entirely dependent on LLMs exactly because they suck at most of what they do anyway. Government contracts are stabilizing the whole industry anyway, something absent from the Dot Com era.
Edit: You know who IS a risk? All the dipshit startups that think putting a wrapper on a CustomGPT was a good business model, and took out loans for that rather than split equity. That’s going to be your first indicator to look for, and it’s wavering because, as it turns out, 99.999999% of those ideas are stupid.
History is the best teacher, and a detailed look shows these are only alike in that they are tech-related.
You’re talking about from buildup to crash, though. As if everyone just looking at literally any large investment and saying “it’s a bubble!” is dong anything other than being a broken clock right twice a day.
I follow conspiracy theories extensively, and people have always predicted a huge, massive economic collapse next year - every year. On Art Bell, it was a constant, reiterated prediction every year from 1994 until 2013. It’s only the ones that happened to say it in 2006 or 2007 that rode the credit of “actually predicting the 2008 crisis!” Even the ones saying it before the Dot Com bubble didn’t get it right because their doomerism made all predictions “end of the world” level.
I haven’t heard this much bubble talk ever. It’s not the same prediction made by the same people again this time. I don’t even know anybody irl who likes vibecoding (myself included) who thinks this is sustainable.
I don’t know what you’re trying to say. People had bad takes about that bubble so all bubble scepticism is discredited? But it popped, which means all these investors had bad takes as well. So…
Nobody worth listening to thinks this bubble is going to be worse than the dotcom bubble. It’s simply not that big to begin with. I guess there’s some wishful thinking too, but what’s the alternative to this investors-expected AI growth? Everything except the AI market crashes?
Exactly. And you know who’s bad at predicting things? Large groups of people.
It’s a fractional bubble at best. Unlike the Dot Com bubble, which invested in things like URLs that no one wanted and WorldCom’s fiber layout, the buildouts and investments being done on spec aren’t of the kind that are single-use. Data centers are always in demand, anyway. Storage and cloud compute are always in demand. Electricity is in demand. If AI flops tomorrow, other than 3 over-valued companies employing…a few hundred people, and idiot investors in those companies, the entire economy isn’t yet entirely dependent on LLMs exactly because they suck at most of what they do anyway. Government contracts are stabilizing the whole industry anyway, something absent from the Dot Com era.
Edit: You know who IS a risk? All the dipshit startups that think putting a wrapper on a CustomGPT was a good business model, and took out loans for that rather than split equity. That’s going to be your first indicator to look for, and it’s wavering because, as it turns out, 99.999999% of those ideas are stupid.
History is the best teacher, and a detailed look shows these are only alike in that they are tech-related.
Except people did predict the crash, they could see it coming and they made bank out of it. They made a movie about it.
That movie was about 20 people copying one guy