In 1775, a year before the Declaration of Independence was signed, a Harvard professor named Edward Wigglesworth did the math on American population growth and could barely contain his excitement. He had found that the colonists were doubling their numbers every 25 years, mostly through births, and at that pace he projected that by the close of the 20th century there would be “ONE THOUSAND TWO-HUNDRED AND EIGHTY MILLIONS” of us (his capitalization, not mine). A billion Americans, and then some.
Sadly, there are only about 340 million of us today. We should be asking not just why we so badly undershot Wigglesworth’s hopes, but also whether we are about to start counting down instead of up.
If America’s population does decline, it will strain our entitlements system, damage the economy, reduce innovation and entrepreneurship, and cause serious labor shortages. But the majority point of view — held by major institutions like the Census Bureau, the United Nations and the Social Security trustees — is that the United States probably won’t face population decline until the 2080s, or even beyond 2100.
It really shouldn’t be surprising that the populace is declining after the tax system and medical insurance system we have in place. When you give all the food (money via tax breaks, which makes health-insurance easier to afford) to one group but not the other (rich over everyone else), don’t be surprised when the other group doesn’t have kids. The food pot is a zero-sum game. So, when all the food is going to one group, hunger sets in for the others. This means they don’t have kids.
Actually it’s mostly correlated with education, and that’s also why (overgeneralizing a bit) poorer nations have a higher birthrate than richer ones, and those are the only nations where population is projected to be growing. The peak population for the entire world is estimated by the UN to be happening in 2084, at around 10 billions.
I think this is very good news for the environment and the sustainability of the world, but bad news for a capitalistic system because the economy can’t grow if the demand shrinks from a shrinking population. This should also explain some of of the right-wing policies and billionaires talking points (except immigration - it makes no sense thry are against that). I’m curious to see what system replaces the “number must go up” capitalism, when the number cannot possibly go up, because the number of customers of the companies is shrinking.
It’s also completely wild that this wide trend of population shrinkage is actually happening for the first time in the entire human history during our lifetime!