perhaps their primary motivation is they don’t want Reform and will vote for whatever least worst option is presented in order

his antics over the last 2 years may very well have pissed quite a lot of his original voters off.

Let me remind you of the words you are trying to defend:

That same showing this time would lose him the vote

What “same showing” are you talking about? I think by this point it’s clear you meant something other than what you said. Since my issue was with what you said, not whatever you meant to say, it’s better we leave it here.